Savings accounts still aren’t generating much income, and yields on bonds have fallen lately. Stock dividends have been holding their own, however.
The yield of the S&P 500 was 1.85 percent on Wednesday, down less than 0.1 percentage point from the end of October, while 10-year Treasury yields fell more than half a percentage point over the same period, to 2.47 percent from 3.12 percent.
The narrowing yield spread between stocks and bonds could make owning funds that focus on big dividend payers seem like a sound idea. But doing so carries risks, several strategists say.
The outlook for interest rates remains cloudy, and many high-yielding stocks are expensive, relative to historical norms, yet funds with high dividend yields have still managed to underperform the market for several years. So the search for yield should be approached warily, with an eye toward stocks that pay decent, but not extremely high, dividends and that, most of all, have the capacity to increase their payouts regularly.
Dividend payers “can be a good component of a portfolio of equities when you have high-quality dividend growth,” said Carin Pai, director of equity management at Fiduciary Trust Company International, a wealth management firm. But, she warns: “If you’re looking just at yield, it could be a sucker bet.”
You could be excused for thinking you made one of those if you’ve had your money in some of the highest-yielding stock funds. The 10 percent of domestic stock funds that have the highest dividend yields in each of three categories — smaller, midsize and larger companies — underperformed their peer groups over one, three and five years through March.
One reason that high-yielding funds are being shunned across the board could be that interest rates were heading higher until very recently. Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds have been rising for most of the last three years, although they are roughly where they were five years ago. And yields on Treasury bills and other cash instruments have climbed steadily throughout the last five years, from close to zero percent to more than 2 percent.
Another factor is that many funds with high yields tend to own value stocks, which generally trade at valuation discounts — hence the name — because they are in economically sensitive industries, such as heavy manufacturing and engineering, commodities, transportation and construction. Their share prices have a habit of fluctuating more than those of companies that are comparatively immune to the economic cycle, so investors often insist on paying lower multiples of earnings to own them.
That has been the case especially during the tepid economic recovery from the global financial crisis. Value stocks have been avoided in favor of companies in more stable, defensive growth sectors, like consumer staples and health.
The weakness of high-yield stock funds is “a value-versus-growth thing,” said Jeff Porter, chief investment officer at Sullivan Bruyette Speros & Blayney, a financial advice firm. “Value stocks have underperformed, and with interest rates so low, growth companies’ earnings way out in the future are more highly valued today.”
Because of the strong demand for stocks in companies that display stable growth, and in other high-yield niches like utilities, funds that pay high income have become expensive, with many trading at a premium to the broad stock market, even though they have underperformed, Mr. Porter said.
“As people have chased utilities and consumer staples, that desire for safety has bid those up to prices that are no longer adding value,” he said.
Mr. Porter, like Ms. Pai, prefers companies that are likely to increase their dividends, even if their current yields are not that high. A recent report by Bank of America noted that stocks with sustainable or growing yields are trading at a rare valuation discount to high-yield stocks. That could provide a cushion should rates fall.
And, of course, the Federal Reserve may keep tightening monetary policy, or maybe just signal that it’s not going to be as accommodative as Wall Street anticipates. The central bank did an about-face in January, shifting abruptly from hawkish to dovish, that sent stocks soaring in January and February, and reaffirmed its stance on March 20; a reversal is not out of the question. Bank of America forecasts that the Fed will raise rates later this year, and its strategists recommend “dividend growth stocks with some cyclicality that can raise payout ratios as rates rise.”
The search for yield can be so difficult that Gregg Fisher, head of research at Gerstein Fisher Funds, recommends calling it off, or at least relegating it to a minor role when building a portfolio, even one intended to generate income. He encourages investors to focus on the best businesses, regardless of their dividend profiles. They ultimately will be most rewarding to shareholders, whether they receive dividend payments or sell appreciated stock.
“A dividend portfolio is less diversified and concentrated in fewer sectors,” he said. “If the goal is to produce cash flow, not accounting income, you should own a diversified portfolio that has some dividend payers and other stocks that don’t pay dividends at all. You end up with more cash flow and better results overall.”
Noting that yields in some foreign markets are higher than what is available from American stocks, Mr. Fisher suggested buying a fund that tracks a globally inclusive index like MSCI All Country World, such as the Vanguard Total World Stock Index mutual fund or Vanguard Total World Stock exchange-traded fund. Each yields about 2.3 percent, well above the yield on the S&P 500.
“If you just went for a total market portfolio and took 3 percent to 4 percent checks on that for the next 30 years, that would probably beat 75 percent of anything else people could do,” Mr. Fisher said.
For those who prefer more conventional income funds, Mr. Porter recommends Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index, “a good core dividend fund” that trades at a slight percent valuation discount to the S&P 500 and yields more than 3 percent. He also likes Cambria Shareholder Yield E.T.F., which specializes in dividend payers and companies buying back their stock. It recently traded at more than a 30 percent discount to the S&P 500.
For investors who may not need current income, he would consider WisdomTree U.S. Quality Dividend Growth, an E.T.F. that aims to own companies with competitive advantages that will allow them to increase payouts.
While high-yielding stocks and funds have fared poorly, Mr. Porter thinks the right ones can still be useful, especially this late in the economic cycle, as long as investors refuse to pay too much for them.
“Dividend payers have their place in portfolios because they have lower volatility and tend to be higher-quality companies, if you can find value,” he said.B:
怎样做毛中特分析题【当】【颜】【茹】【枫】【带】【着】【夏】【芋】，【走】【到】【一】【家】【酒】【馆】【门】【前】【的】【时】【候】，【忽】【听】【得】【酒】【馆】【内】【部】【传】【来】【一】【阵】【噪】【杂】【声】。 “【这】【人】【有】【病】【吧】，【喝】【多】【了】【在】【这】【里】【耍】【酒】【疯】！” “【呵】【呵】！” “【这】【人】【不】【但】【有】【病】，【脑】【子】【也】【有】【问】【题】。” “【谁】【说】【不】【是】【呢】，【拉】【着】【人】【加】【老】【板】【的】【女】【儿】【硬】【说】【是】【他】【师】【妹】，【真】【有】【意】【思】。” 【这】【时】，【只】【见】【一】【个】【醉】【醺】【醺】【的】【男】【子】，【忽】【的】【怒】【吼】【一】【声】。
【风】【呼】【呼】【的】【吹】【着】，【城】【头】【矗】【立】【的】【大】【旗】【随】【风】【飘】【扬】，【旗】【面】【如】【波】【浪】【一】【般】【起】【伏】【不】【定】。 【长】【城】【卫】【士】【军】【中】【的】【旗】【帜】，【是】【非】【常】【简】【单】【的】【旗】【帜】，【没】【有】【任】【何】【的】【标】【识】，【上】【面】【也】【没】【有】【任】【何】【的】【字】【眼】。【只】【有】【红】，【是】【红】【色】【的】【旗】【帜】，【那】【代】【表】【着】【长】【城】【立】【于】【此】【地】【经】【历】【过】【的】【血】【与】【火】，【代】【表】【着】【每】【一】【名】【生】【活】【在】【长】【城】【脚】【下】【的】【人】【们】【那】【滚】【烫】【的】【心】。 【黑】【暗】【中】，【有】【一】【个】【个】【小】【小】【的】【黑】【影】
“【团】【长】，【快】，【快】【接】【住】【你】【的】【蛇】【儿】【子】！”【阿】【楠】【不】【敢】【说】【什】【么】，【阿】【汉】【可】【不】【是】。 【刚】【才】【夜】【御】【寒】【的】【话】【深】【入】【的】【不】【仅】【是】【阿】【楠】【的】【脑】【海】，【此】【时】【阿】【汉】【的】【脑】【海】【中】【也】【都】【是】【团】【长】【突】【然】【多】【出】【了】【一】【个】【儿】【子】。 【虽】【然】，【这】【儿】【子】【是】【个】【蛇】【儿】【子】！ 【但】【是】！！ 【这】【可】【是】**【蛇】【啊】！ 【团】【长】【这】【运】【气】【也】【是】【够】【好】【的】！ 【因】【为】【这】【厮】**【蛇】，【北】【极】【狐】【对】【它】【的】【厌】【恶】【也】【就】
“【不】【对】，【按】【照】【你】【这】【么】【说】【的】【话】，【我】【应】【该】【是】【没】【有】【机】【会】【打】【扫】【现】【场】【的】。【所】【以】【说】，【我】【应】【该】【是】【有】【留】【下】【证】【据】【在】【那】【边】【才】【对】。【但】【如】【果】【我】【真】【的】【有】【留】【下】【证】【据】【在】【那】【边】【的】【话】，【你】【们】【找】【到】【我】【的】【第】【一】【天】，【就】【直】【接】【将】【我】【给】【定】【罪】【了】，【何】【至】【于】【等】【到】【现】【在】？”【就】【在】【东】【旭】【说】【完】【停】【顿】【一】【下】【之】【后】，【林】【杰】【就】【在】【那】【边】【嚷】【嚷】【起】【来】【了】。 “【别】【急】，【乖】【乖】【听】【完】。”【东】【旭】【却】【是】【一】【脸】【的】【胸】怎样做毛中特分析题【恒】【彦】【林】【低】【头】【想】【了】【想】，【也】【不】【想】【和】【这】【些】【人】【绕】【弯】【子】【了】。 “【现】【在】【我】【比】【你】【们】【强】，【给】【你】【们】【两】【个】【选】【择】，【第】【一】【个】，【我】【看】【上】【你】【们】【的】【科】【技】【了】，【把】【你】【们】【的】【科】【技】【打】【包】【给】【我】，【第】【二】【个】，【我】【把】【你】【们】【全】【部】【杀】【光】，【关】【闭】【你】【们】【通】【往】【这】【里】【的】【通】【道】。” 【留】【在】【原】【地】【的】【小】【巨】【人】，【听】【着】【恒】【彦】【林】【这】【么】【一】【说】，【顿】【时】【微】【微】【一】【怔】，【看】【了】【看】【恒】【彦】【林】【之】【后】，【脸】【上】【涌】【起】【一】【抹】【迟】【疑】【之】
【咚】【咚】【咚】，【咚】【咚】【咚】！ 【宁】【孤】【辰】【和】【古】【熏】【而】【本】【打】【算】【离】【开】【广】【场】【然】【后】【返】【回】【住】【所】【去】，【然】【而】【两】【人】【还】【未】【走】【出】【广】【场】，【很】【是】【奇】【怪】【的】【整】【个】【学】【院】【的】【上】【空】【突】【然】【之】【间】【传】【来】【了】【低】【沉】【的】【钟】【声】。 【钟】【声】【低】【沉】，【然】【而】【却】【是】【传】【遍】【学】【院】【的】【任】【何】【一】【个】【角】【落】，【所】【有】【人】【都】【听】【的】【清】【清】【楚】【楚】。 “【这】【是】【什】【么】【钟】【声】？” “【哪】【里】【响】【起】【的】【钟】【声】？” 【面】【对】【着】【这】【道】【钟】【声】，【几】【乎】
【连】【一】【帆】【在】【市】【场】【部】【正】【口】【若】【悬】【河】【夸】【夸】【其】【谈】，【于】【小】【彪】【走】【过】【来】【一】【拍】【他】【的】【肩】【膀】，“【走】【了】！” “【好】。【我】【再】【说】【一】【句】，【你】【们】【几】【个】【谁】【要】【是】【头】【脑】【清】【醒】【不】【想】【在】【这】【儿】【干】【了】，【找】【我】，【我】【介】【绍】【你】【们】【到】【云】T【去】。” “【别】【瞎】【扯】【了】！【快】【走】。”【于】【小】【彪】【催】【促】。 “【我】【说】【的】【实】【话】。”【连】【一】【帆】【扭】【头】【刚】【想】【发】【作】【但】【见】【简】【繁】【已】【经】【走】【出】【大】【门】，【急】【忙】【揽】【起】【大】【衣】【跟】【上】。